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1997 (13)

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Book
Explaining and Forecasting the Velocity of Money in Transition Economies, with Special Reference to the Baltics, Russia and other Countries of the Former Soviet Union.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462367089 1452703825 1281601160 9786613781857 1451898673 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The paper identifies a number of stylized facts on the behavior of key macroeconomic variables during high inflation and stabilization in countries in transition. To examine the extent to which these stylized facts conform to the predictions of standard open economy monetary theory, the paper develops a simple monetary model of the exchange rate incorporating price stickiness and inflation inertia, and carries out an econometric analysis of the behavior of real money balances during inflation stabilization. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for velocity developments in countries in transition, including the likely pace of remonetization.


Book
Croatia : Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462384722 1451984804 1280926376 1463905602 9786613744524 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix deals with the data interpretation problems in the Croatian balance of payments and discusses in detail the overestimation of the size of the external current account deficit in the official statistics. It examines the behavior of the monetary aggregates in Croatia using econometric methods. The structure and performance of the banking sector is also analyzed, including the effects of competition and ownership structure on profitability and interest rate spreads.


Book
Monetary Frameworks : Is There a Preferred Option for the European Central Bank?
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ISBN: 1462335071 1455217506 1451972032 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses how the size of the monetary union in Europe can influence the choice of the monetary framework. The main conjecture is that the European Central Bank ought to target inflation if monetary union is confined to a “core” group of countries. However, the decision on whether to target inflation or monetary aggregates is not an unambiguous one if monetary union is EU-wide; the choice of the framework will depend on the type of shocks that are likely to prevail. The arguments motivating these conjectures essentially concern the trade-offs between the viability and credibility of different monetary frameworks.


Book
Stock Market Equilibrium and Macroeconomic Fundamentals
Author:
ISBN: 1462322840 1452765448 1281604240 9786613784933 1451891210 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the efficiency of the Stock Exchange of Singapore and the relationship between the stock market and the overall economy. Using a wide range of methods for testing market efficiency, the paper establishes that the Singapore stock market is both “weakly” and “semi-strongly” efficient in asset-pricing terms but not “strongly” efficient. Granger causality tests based on the efficiency test results indicate that developments in the stock market appear to be systematically related to the overall economy in Singapore and can thus serve as a leading indicator of its intertemporal behavior.


Book
Inflation in Transition Economies : How Much? and Why?
Author:
ISBN: 1462387314 1452714940 1283566265 1451896433 9786613878717 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Following very high inflation rates at the beginning of the reform process, most transition countries have succeeded in lowering their inflation to more moderate rates. Inflation rates in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union are now typically in the range of 10–60 percent. This essay examines whether a further reduction in inflation may be necessary. It concludes that low inflation may be important for achieving remonetization of the economy and sustained output growth.


Book
Monetary Impact of a Banking Crisis and the Conduct of Monetary Policy
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ISBN: 1462360009 1452784531 1282051040 9786613798497 1451899955 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The experiences of seven countries that have undergone banking crises show that crises have significant implications for the short-run stability of the demand for money, the money multiplier, the transmission mechanism, and the signal variables of monetary policy. Monetary and credit instability, coupled with changes in the nature of the monetary and credit aggregates, complicate monetary management. These findings may require redesigning monetary instruments in favor of faster-reacting instruments, such as open market operations, and introducing additional indicators of the monetary stance, such as asset price and exchange rate movements. More frequent reviews of monetary programs may also be necessary.


Book
Sri Lanka : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462300936 1452706263 1280975342 1463907583 9786613746955 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper on Sri Lanka provides background information on economic developments and on selected policy issues facing Sri Lanka. The main economic developments in 1996 and the first quarter of 1997 are discussed. The paper highlights that in 1996, a severe drought, power shortages, and an escalation in the military conflict contributed to a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. With the end of the drought and power shortages, and a rise in investor confidence, macroeconomic conditions in 1997 were more favorable.


Book
Korea : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1463966016 1463952236 1280926163 1463907516 9786613744357 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper on Korea provides background information on economic developments and policies, with particular emphasis on 1995–96. Following two years of rapid expansion, led by buoyant investment and exports, economic growth moderated in late 1995 and the first half of 1996. The moderation was in response to the earlier tightening of monetary conditions and less favorable short-term export prospects. The slowdown was reflected in a sharp deceleration in final domestic demand, whose contribution to growth fell from 9.1 percent in 1995 to 6.6 percent in the first half of 1996.


Book
Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Asean Countries : Implications for Monetary Policy
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462383351 1452753318 1281607193 9786613787903 1451892896 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper examines the impact of financial market development and liberalization on money demand behavior in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand since the early 1980s. The empirical results indicate continuing instability in the interaction of money growth, economic activity, and inflation. Rapid growth and ongoing changes in financial markets suggest that policy needs to be guided by a wider set of monetary and real sector indicators of inflationary pressures. The feasibility of alternative policy frameworks--including nominal exchange rate targets, and inflation targets--is discussed in the context of the substantial and sustained increase in foreign capital inflows.


Book
Broad Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Tunisia
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ISBN: 1462356133 1452742227 1283568888 9786613881335 1451891784 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The development of empirical foundations to the conduct of monetary policy in Tunisia is the central concern of this paper. Finding stable money demand functions, it broadly corroborates the choice of monetary aggregates as intermediate targets of monetary policy by the Tunisian Central Bank. It finds, however, a lower income elasticity than the one currently applied by the Central Bank and proposes a different methodology for defining monetary growth targets. The paper also finds that both interest rates and reserve money are feasible operating targets and suggests that the Central Bank orients its monetary policy more towards transparent operating targets.

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