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The paper identifies a number of stylized facts on the behavior of key macroeconomic variables during high inflation and stabilization in countries in transition. To examine the extent to which these stylized facts conform to the predictions of standard open economy monetary theory, the paper develops a simple monetary model of the exchange rate incorporating price stickiness and inflation inertia, and carries out an econometric analysis of the behavior of real money balances during inflation stabilization. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for velocity developments in countries in transition, including the likely pace of remonetization.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Aggregative Models: General --- International Economics: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Monetary base --- Demand for money --- Spot exchange rates --- Prices --- Money --- Money supply --- Russian Federation
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This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix deals with the data interpretation problems in the Croatian balance of payments and discusses in detail the overestimation of the size of the external current account deficit in the official statistics. It examines the behavior of the monetary aggregates in Croatia using econometric methods. The structure and performance of the banking sector is also analyzed, including the effects of competition and ownership structure on profitability and interest rate spreads.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Exports and Imports --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Trade: General --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Demand for money --- Currencies --- Bank deposits --- Money --- Exports --- International trade --- Imports --- Banks and banking --- Croatia, Republic of
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This paper discusses how the size of the monetary union in Europe can influence the choice of the monetary framework. The main conjecture is that the European Central Bank ought to target inflation if monetary union is confined to a “core” group of countries. However, the decision on whether to target inflation or monetary aggregates is not an unambiguous one if monetary union is EU-wide; the choice of the framework will depend on the type of shocks that are likely to prevail. The arguments motivating these conjectures essentially concern the trade-offs between the viability and credibility of different monetary frameworks.
Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary unions --- Monetary aggregates --- Demand for money --- Monetary aggregate target --- Monetary policy --- Economic integration --- Money --- Money supply --- United Kingdom
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This paper examines the efficiency of the Stock Exchange of Singapore and the relationship between the stock market and the overall economy. Using a wide range of methods for testing market efficiency, the paper establishes that the Singapore stock market is both “weakly” and “semi-strongly” efficient in asset-pricing terms but not “strongly” efficient. Granger causality tests based on the efficiency test results indicate that developments in the stock market appear to be systematically related to the overall economy in Singapore and can thus serve as a leading indicator of its intertemporal behavior.
Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Demand for Money --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Monetary economics --- Stock markets --- Stocks --- Asset prices --- Vector autoregression --- Demand for money --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Econometric analysis --- Money --- Stock exchanges --- Singapore
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Following very high inflation rates at the beginning of the reform process, most transition countries have succeeded in lowering their inflation to more moderate rates. Inflation rates in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union are now typically in the range of 10–60 percent. This essay examines whether a further reduction in inflation may be necessary. It concludes that low inflation may be important for achieving remonetization of the economy and sustained output growth.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Demand for money --- Production growth --- Monetary base --- Public expenditure review --- Prices --- Money --- Production --- Expenditure --- Economic theory --- Money supply --- Expenditures, Public --- Russian Federation
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The experiences of seven countries that have undergone banking crises show that crises have significant implications for the short-run stability of the demand for money, the money multiplier, the transmission mechanism, and the signal variables of monetary policy. Monetary and credit instability, coupled with changes in the nature of the monetary and credit aggregates, complicate monetary management. These findings may require redesigning monetary instruments in favor of faster-reacting instruments, such as open market operations, and introducing additional indicators of the monetary stance, such as asset price and exchange rate movements. More frequent reviews of monetary programs may also be necessary.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Demand for Money --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Monetary economics --- Banking crises --- Commercial banks --- Demand for money --- Monetary aggregates --- Financial crises --- Money --- Credit --- Financial institutions --- Banks and banking --- Money supply --- Venezuela, República Bolivariana de
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This Selected Issues paper on Sri Lanka provides background information on economic developments and on selected policy issues facing Sri Lanka. The main economic developments in 1996 and the first quarter of 1997 are discussed. The paper highlights that in 1996, a severe drought, power shortages, and an escalation in the military conflict contributed to a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. With the end of the drought and power shortages, and a rise in investor confidence, macroeconomic conditions in 1997 were more favorable.
Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Demand for money --- Tariffs --- Monetary base --- Exports --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Money --- Taxes --- International trade --- Financial institutions --- Money supply --- Tariff --- Government securities --- Sri Lanka
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This Selected Issues paper on Korea provides background information on economic developments and policies, with particular emphasis on 1995–96. Following two years of rapid expansion, led by buoyant investment and exports, economic growth moderated in late 1995 and the first half of 1996. The moderation was in response to the earlier tightening of monetary conditions and less favorable short-term export prospects. The slowdown was reflected in a sharp deceleration in final domestic demand, whose contribution to growth fell from 9.1 percent in 1995 to 6.6 percent in the first half of 1996.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Demand for Money --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Banking --- Monetary aggregates --- Total factor productivity --- Demand for money --- Labor --- Potential output --- Money supply --- Balance of payments --- Economic theory --- Industrial productivity --- Money --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper examines the impact of financial market development and liberalization on money demand behavior in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand since the early 1980s. The empirical results indicate continuing instability in the interaction of money growth, economic activity, and inflation. Rapid growth and ongoing changes in financial markets suggest that policy needs to be guided by a wider set of monetary and real sector indicators of inflationary pressures. The feasibility of alternative policy frameworks--including nominal exchange rate targets, and inflation targets--is discussed in the context of the substantial and sustained increase in foreign capital inflows.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Banking --- Demand for money --- Monetary base --- Stock markets --- Securities markets --- Money --- Financial markets --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary policy --- Money supply --- Banks and banking --- Stock exchanges --- Capital market --- Singapore
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The development of empirical foundations to the conduct of monetary policy in Tunisia is the central concern of this paper. Finding stable money demand functions, it broadly corroborates the choice of monetary aggregates as intermediate targets of monetary policy by the Tunisian Central Bank. It finds, however, a lower income elasticity than the one currently applied by the Central Bank and proposes a different methodology for defining monetary growth targets. The paper also finds that both interest rates and reserve money are feasible operating targets and suggests that the Central Bank orients its monetary policy more towards transparent operating targets.
Banks and Banking --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Policy --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Asia including Middle East --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Monetary base --- Demand for money --- Treasury bills and bonds --- Monetary aggregates --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Personal income --- National accounts --- Money supply --- Government securities --- Banks and banking --- Income --- Tunisia
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